hero working papers

Belief change, Rationality, and Strategic Reasoning in Sequential Games

Number: 679
Year: 2021
Author(s): Pierpaolo BATTIGALLI, Emiliano CATONINI, Julien MANILI
A central aspect of strategic reasoning in sequential games consists in anticipating how co-players would react to information about past play, which in turn depends on how co-players update and revise their beliefs. Several notions of belief system have been used to model how players' beliefs change as they obtain new information, some imposing considerably more discipline than others on how beliefs at different information sets are related. We highlight the differences between these notions of belief system in terms of introspection about one's own conditional beliefs, but we also show that such differences do not affect the essential aspects of rational planning and the behavioral implications of strategic reasoning, as captured by rationalizability.

Keywords: Sequential games, chain rule, partial introspection, rational planning, rationalizability
JEL codes: C72, C73, D83