Author(s): Claudia Foroni Pierre Guérin Massimiliano Marcellino
This paper documents time-variation in the relation between oil price and U.S. equity returns based on both reduced-form and structural analyses. Our reduced-form analysis suggests that a positive correlation between equity returns and oil price has emerged starting from the financial crisis. Based on our structural analysis, we find that oil-specific demand shocks have had positive effects on the U.S. stock market since 2008 as opposed to oil supply shocks, which have no large effects on stock re turns. We also show that the time variation in the parameters of the structural VAR is very well explained by the level of the U.S. short-term interest rate and shifts in consumer confidence.
Keywords: Stock Returns, Oil Market Shocks, Time-varying Parameter VAR
JEL codes: G12, Q43, C32