hero working papers

No News in Business Cycles

Number: 491
Year: 2013
Author(s): Mario Forni, Luca Gambetti,Luca Sala
A structural Factor-Augmented VAR model is used to evaluate the role of 'news' shocks in generating the business cycle. We find that (i) existing small-scale VAR models are affected by 'non-fundamentalness' and therefore fail to recover the correct shock and impulse response functions; (ii) news shocks have a smaller role in explaining the business cycle than previously found in the literature; (iii) their effects are essentially in line with what predicted by standard theories; (iv) a substantial fraction of business cycle
uctuations are explained by shocks unrelated to technology.

Keywords: Factor-augmented VAR, news shocks, invertibility, fundamentalness
JEL codes: C32, E32, E62