hero working papers

No News in Business Cycles

Number: 383
Year: 2011
Author(s): Mario Forni, Luca Gambetti and Luca Sala
This paper uses a structural, large dimensional factor model to evaluate the role of 'news' shocks (shocks with a delayed effect on productivity) in generating the business cycle. We find that (i) existing small-scale VECM models are affected by 'non-fundamentalness' and therefore fail to recover the correct shock and impulse response functions; (ii) news shocks have a limited role in explaining the business cycle; (iii) their effects are in line with what predicted by standard neoclassical theory; (iv) the bulk of business cycle fluctuations are explained by shocks unrelated to technology.

Keywords: structural factor model, news shocks, invertibility, fundamentalness
JEL codes: C32, E32, E62