Dataset
The Data
1) A word file that contains a guided tour to all files used to construct our databases: APPENDIX_OVERVIEW.DOC
2) A word file with a detailed description of all measures(country by country) that we have used to construct fiscal adjustment plans : APPENDIX_DESCRIPTION.pdf
3) An EXCEL file that allows to analyze country by country and year by year all consolidation measures: APPENDIX_TABLES.XLSX
The construction of the file is detailed in APPENDIX_OVERVIEW.DOC.
4) An EXCEL file that allows to map measures into plans and rescale them by the level of GDP: DATA_STRUCTURING.XLSX
The construction of the file is detailed in APPENDIX_OVERVIEW.DOC.
5) An EXCEL file that contains the macroeconomic database together with fiscal plans, which is imported in EVIEWS for estimation and simulation of all models used in the book: DATABASE.XLSX
A brief Description
To construct our database we have taken as starting point the narrative identification procedure of P. Devries, J. Guajardo, D. Leigh, and A. Pescatori 2011. The main criteria we adopt to classify fiscal adjustments as exogenous are the following:
(i)They are geared towards reducing the budget deficit
(ii)They are politically motivated with reasons that are independent from the state of the business cycle.
(iii) they are prompted by a long-run economic trend, e.g. reducing the sustainability gap of public finances induced by population ageing
Adjustments induced by short-run countercyclical concerns are considered endogenous and thus excluded. For each country we go back to the original sources consulted by Devries et al. and follow the same methodology to extend the time span of the dataset to 2009-2014.
Fiscal plans consist of the announcement of a sequence of actions, some to be implemented at the time the legislation is adopted, some announced for the following periods. In order to construct fiscal plans, we re-classify the measures implemented distinguishing between those that were unexpected and those that were announced. Measures are also recorded according to the announced timing of their implementation. More precisely, a fi scal plan adopted in year t typically contains three components:
(i) Unexpected shifts in fiscal variables (announced and implemented in year t)
(ii) Shifts implemented at time t which had been announced in previous years
(iii) Shifts announced at time t, to be implemented in future years (we consider horizons up to t+5)
Finally, information available for each single measure allows us to aggregate them into four different components:
(i) Government Consumption and Investment
(ii) Transfers
(iii) Direct Taxes
(iv) Indirect Taxes