Climate Change and the Green Transition: Disruptive Effects on Territories, Firms, and Workers, and Policy Responses to Build Resilience

Julien Sauvagnat

Julien Sauvagnat

Principal Investigator


November 2023 - November 2025


This research project will combine quasi-natural experiments and insights from the network literature in order to provide causal evidence on the distributional impact and propagation patterns of climate shocks across the infrastructure network, firms, and workers. The results will guide policy-makers in the design of their interventions for improving the resilience and environmental footprint of the economy. The research is articulated in five intertwined projects. Climate change and the infrastructure network. In WP1, we will study the effects of investment programs in improving the resilience of the infrastructure network to natural hazards. We will assess the effectiveness of such investment programs implemented in the past; estimate the economic damage that shocks to the infrastructure network inflict to the local economy, taking into account spatial linkages across regions; evaluate the benefits that the infrastructure policies have on the economy; and inform on how these policies should be modified in light of the inexorable climate change that is expected in the near future. In WP2, we will assess the environmental impact of the 25.4 billion euros allocated by the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP) to finance the construction of rails infrastructure and to improve the quality of road infrastructure in Italy. We will predict the fraction of freight that will shift from a high-carbon transportation mode (the road network) to a low-carbon transportation mode (the rail network). We then aim to quantify the associated drop in carbon emissions using state-of-the-art environmental techniques.


Other Research Units:

  • Annalisa Scognamiglio, Università degli Studi di Napoli Federico II