Working papers

IGIER fellows and affiliates publish books and articles in academic journals. Their current research projects are featured in the Working Paper series.

2016 - n° 588

Learning and Self-confirming Long-Run Biases

P. Battigalli,A. Francetich, G. Lanzani, M. Marinacci

2016 - n° 587

Culture and team production

Vicente Calabuig, Gonzalo Olcina, and Fabrizio Panebianco

2016 - n° 586

Identifying and Measuring the Contagion Channels at Work in the European Financial Crises

Massimo Guidolin and Manuela Pedio

Keywords: Contagion channels, Markov switching models, vector autoregressions, impulse response function, flight-to-quality, flight-to-liquidity, risk premium

2016 - n° 585

Uncertainty Through the Lenses of A Mixed-Frequency Bayesian Panel Markov Switching Model

Roberto Casarin, Claudia Foroni, Massimiliano Marcellino, and Francesco Ravazzolo

Keywords: dynamic panel model, mixed-frequency, Markov switching, Bayesian inference, MCMC

2016 - n° 584

On the Use of Price-Cost Tests in Loyalty Discounts and Exclusive Dealing Arrangements: Which Implications from Economic Theory?

Chiara Fumagalli and Massimo Motta

Keywords: Market-Share Discounts, Inefficient Foreclosure, Exclusive Dealing, Antitrust Policy

2016 - n° 583

The Bomb-Crater Effect of Tax Audits: Beyond Misperception of Chance

Luigi Mittone, Fabrizio Panebianco, Alessandro Santoro

Keywords: Bomb-crater effect, Bayesian Updating, Behavioral Duality

2016 - n° 582

Insurance Between Firms: The Role of Internal Labor Markets

Giacinta Cestone, Chiara Fumagalli, Francis Kramarz, Giovanni Pica

Keywords: Internal Labor Markets, Organizations, Business Groups

2016 - n° 581

Weak time-derivatives and no arbitrage pricing

Massimo Marinacci and Federico Severino

Keywords: no arbitrage pricing; weak time-derivative; martingale component; special semimartingales; stochastic interest rates

2016 - n° 580

Banking the Unbanked? Evidence from three countries

Pascaline Dupas, Dean Karlan, Jonathan Robinson, and Diego Ubfal

Keywords: financial access; savings; banking; micro-finance; field experiment; multicountry; Uganda; Malawi; Chile

2016 - n° 579

Innovation, Pricing and Targeting in Networks

Fabrizio Panebianco, Thierry Verdier, Yves Zenou

Keywords: Networks, diffusion centrality, targets, innovation

2016 - n° 578

Absolute and Relative Ambiguity Aversion: A Preferential Approach

S. Cerreia-Vioglio, F. Maccheroni, and M. Marinacci

2016 - n° 577

Orthogonal Decompositions in Hilbert A-Modules

S. Cerreia-Vioglio, F. Maccheroni, and M. Marinacci

2016 - n° 576

Ellsberg re-revisited: An experiment disentangling model uncertainty and risk aversion

Loic Berger and Valentina Bosetti

Keywords: Ambiguity aversion, model uncertainty, reduction of compound lotteries, nonexpected utility, subjective probabilities, decreasing absolute ambiguity aversion

2016 - n° 575

Persuasion and Gender: Experimental Evidence from Two Political Campaigns

Vincenzo Galasso and Tommaso Nannicini

Keywords: gender differences, political campaigns, randomized controlled trials, competitive persuasion

2016 - n° 574

The Evolution of Awareness and Belief Ambiguity During the Process of High School Track Choice

Pamela Giustinelli and Nicola Pavoni

Keywords: Subjective Beliefs, Learning under Ambiguity and Limited Awareness, School Choice

2016 - n° 573

A Framework for the Analysis of Self-Confirming Policies

P. Battigalli, S. Cerreia-Vioglio, F. Maccheroni, M. Marinacci, T. Sargent

Keywords: Self-confirming equilibrium, partial identification, monetary policy

2016 - n° 572

Efficient Child Care Subsidies

Christine Ho, Nicola Pavoni

Keywords: optimal taxation, asymmetric information, child care subsid ies

2016 - n° 571

The rich in historical perspective Evidence for preindustrial Europe (ca 1300-1800)

Guido Alfani

Keywords: Economic inequality; wealth concentration; richness; top wealthy; middle ages; early modern period; Italy; Low Countries; Catalonia; Black Death; property structures

2016 - n° 570

A daily indicator of economic growth for the euro area

Valentina Aprigliano, Claudia Foroni, Massimiliano Marcellino, Gianluigi Mazzi, Fabrizio Venditti

Keywords: Nowcasting, mixed-frequency data

2016 - n° 569

Old before their time: The role of employers in retirement decisions

Piera Bello and Vincenzo Galasso

2016 - n° 568

Competing Mechanisms in Markets for Lemons

Sarah Auster Piero Gottardi

2016 - n° 567

Dissecting the 2007-2009 Real Estate Market Bust: Systematic Pricing Correction or Just a Housing Fad?

Daniele Bianchi, Massimo Guidolin, Francesco Ravazzolo

Keywords: I-CAPM, Mispricing, REIT, Model Uncertainty, Stochastic Breaks, Bayesian Econometrics

2015 - n° 566

565 A Market Foundation for Conditional Asset Pricing

Simone Cerreia-Vioglio, Fabio Maccheroni, Massimo Marinacci

2015 - n° 565

Learning to smile: Can rational learning explain predictable dynamics in the implied volatility surface?

Alejandro Bernales and Massimo Guidolin

Keywords: option pricing, rational learning, Bayesian updating, implied volatility, predictability

2015 - n° 564

Mass Media and Social Change: Can We Use Television to Fight Poverty?

Eliana La Ferrara

2015 - n° 563

Lending Standards Over the Credit Cycle

Giacomo Rodano, Nicolas Serrano-Velarde, Emanuele Tarantino

Keywords: Credit Cycles; Financial Contracts; Credit Rationing; Real Activity

2015 - n° 562

The Impact of Monetary Policy on Corporate Bonds under Regime Shifts

Massimo Guidolin, Alexei G. Orlov and Manuela Pedio

Keywords: Unconventional monetary policy, corporate bonds, term structure of Treasury yields, impulse response function, Markov swit ching vector autoregression

2015 - n° 561

On the equality of Clarke-Rockafellar and Greenberg-Pierskalla differentials for monotone and quasiconcave functionals

S. Cerreia-Vioglio, F. Maccheroni, and M. Marinacci

2015 - n° 560

From Weber to Kafka: Political Activism and the Emergence of an Inefficient Bureaucracy

Gabriele Gratton, Luigi Guiso, Claudio Michelacci and Massimo Morelli

2015 - n° 559

Electoral Competition with Rationally Inattentive Voters

Filip Matejka and Guido Tabellini

2015 - n° 558

A Shrinkage Instrumental Variable Estimator for Large Datasets

A. Carriero, G. Kapetanios, and M. Marcellino

Keywords: Instrumental Variable Estimation, 2SLS, Shrinkage, Bayesian Regression J

2015 - n° 557

Was there a 'Little Convergence' in inequality? Italy and the Low Countries compared, ca 1500-1800

Guido Alfani and Wouter Ryckbosch

Keywords: Economic inequality; early modern period; Sabaudian State; Florentine State; Italy; Low Countries; Belgium; The Netherlands; inequality extraction; wealth concentration; fiscal state; proletarianization

2015 - n° 556

Risk Analysis and Decision Theory: Foundations

E. Borgonovo, V. Cappelli, F. Maccheroni, M. Marinacci

2015 - n° 555

Government Spending at the Zero Lower Bound Desirable?

Florin Bilbiie, Tommaso Monacelli, Roberto Perotti

Keywords: Government spending multiplier, zero lower bound, welfare

2015 - n° 554

How General Are Time Preferences? Eliciting Good-Specific Discount Rates

Diego Ubfal

Keywords: time preferences, good-specific discounting, narrow-bracketing, selfcontrol problems, poverty traps

2015 - n° 553

Model Uncertainty

Massimo Marinacci

2015 - n° 552

Surprised by the Gambler's and Hot Hand Fallacies? A Truth in the Law of Small Numbers

Joshua B. Miller and Adam Sanjurjo

Keywords: Law of Small Numbers; Alternation Bias; Negative Recency Bias; Gambler's Fallacy; Hot Hand Fallacy; Hot Hand Effect; Sequential Decision Making; Sequential Data; Selection Bias; Finite Sample Bias; Small Sample Bias

2015 - n° 551

Selling to the mean

Nenad Kos and Matthias Messner

Keywords: Optimal mechanism design, Robustness, Incentive compatibility, Individual rationality, Ambiguity aversion

2015 - n° 550

Macroeconomic Factors Strike Back: A Bayesian Change-Point Model of Time-Varying Risk Exposures and Premia in the US Cross-Section

Daniele Bianchi, Massimo Guidolin and Francesco Ravazzolo

Keywords: Structural breaks, Stochastic volatility, Multi-factor linear models, Asset Pricing

2015 - n° 549

Stochastic Dominance Analysis without the Independence Axiom

Simone Cerreia Vioglio, Fabio Maccheroni, Massimo Marinacci

Keywords: Stochastic dominance, integral stochastic orders, nonexpected utility, risk aversion, multi-utility representation, prospect theory, choice-acclimating personal equilibria

2015 - n° 548

Is it a Fallacy to Believe in the Hot Hand in the NBA Three-Point Contest?

Joshua B. Miller and Adam Sanjurjo

Keywords: Hot Hand Fallacy; Hot Hand Effect

2015 - n° 547

Bankruptcy Law and Bank Financing

Giacomo Rodano, Nicolas Serrano-Velarde, Emanuele Tarantino

Keywords: Financial Distress, Financial Contracting, Renegotiation, Multi-bank Borrowing, Bankruptcy Courts

2015 - n° 546

Deleverage and Financial Fragility

Marco Maffezzoli, Tommaso Monacelli

2015 - n° 545

Political Selection under Alternative Electoral Rules

Vincenzo Galasso, Tommaso Nannicini

Keywords: electoral rules, political selection, probabilistic voting

2015 - n° 544

Hilbert A-Modules

S. Cerreia Vioglio, F. Maccheroni, and M. Marinacci

2015 - n° 543

Real Rigidity, Nominal Rigidity, and the Social Value of Information

George-Marios Angeletos, Luigi Iovino, Jennifer Lao

Keywords: Fluctuations, informational frictions, strategic complementarity, coordination, beauty contests, central-bank transparency

2015 - n° 542

Election and Divisiveness: Theory and Evidence

Elliott Ash, Massimo Morelli, Richard Van Weelden

Keywords: Posturing, Reputation, Transparency, Effort Allocation, Multi-task

2015 - n° 541

Mediation and Peace

Johannes Horner, Massimo Morelli, Francesco Squintani

2015 - n° 540

Dispute Resolution Institutions and Strategic Militarization

Adam Meirowitz, Massimo Morelli, Kristopher W. Ramsay, Francesco Squintani

2015 - n° 539

Frustration and Anger in Games

Pierpaolo Battigalli, Martin Dufwenberg, Alec Smith

Keywords: frustration, anger, blame, belief-dependent preferences, psychological games

2015 - n° 538

Honesty and Informal Agreements

Martin Dufwenberg, Maros Servátka and Radovan Vadovic

2015 - n° 537

Dynamic corporate capital structure behavior:empirical assessment in the light of heterogeneity and non stationarity

Maria Elena Bontempi, Laura Bottazzi, and Roberto Golinelli

Keywords: Corporate finance; Heterogeneity of agents; Target leverage; Speed of adjustment; Unit roots and cointegration

2014 - n° 536

Extractive Institutions and Gains From Trade: Evidence from Colonial Africa

Federico Tadei

Keywords: Africa, Development, Institutions, Colonization, Trade, Labor Markets

2014 - n° 535

Conditional Lp-spaces and the duality of modules over f-algebras

S. Cerreia-Vioglio, M. Kupper, F. Maccheroni, M. Marinacci, N. Vogelpoth

Keywords: Dual pairs, Hahn-Banach Theorem for modules, complete L0-normed modules, automatic continuity

2014 - n° 534

Banking on Experiments?

Martin Dufwenberg

Keywords: banking crises, lab experiments

2014 - n° 533

Keeping Researchers Honest: The Case for Sealed-Envelope-Submissions

Martin Dufwenberg and Peter Martinsson

2014 - n° 532

Noise Bubbles

Mario Forni, Luca Gambetti, Marco Lippi, Luca Sala

Keywords: Rational bubbles, structural VARs, noise shocks

2014 - n° 531

Noisy News in Business Cycles

Mario Forni, Luca Gambetti, Marco Lippi, Luca Sala

Keywords: Nonfundamentalness, SVAR, Imperfect Information, News, Noise, Business cycles

2014 - n° 530

Dark Pool Trading Strategies, Market Quality and Welfare

Sabrina Buti, Barbara Rindi, Ingrid M. Werner

2014 - n° 529

Cultural Differences and Institutional Integration

Luigi Guiso, Helios Herrera, Massimo Morelli

Keywords: Cultural Norms, Institutions, Crisis Mismanagement

2014 - n° 528

Internal Hierarchy and Stable Coalition Structures

Massimo Morelli and In-Uck Park

Keywords: Stable systems, Abilities, Hierarchy, Cyclic partition

2014 - n° 527

A note on comparative ambiguity aversion and justifiability

P. Battigalli, S. Cerreia-Vioglio, F. Maccheroni, M. Marinacci

2014 - n° 526

So Closed: Political Selection in Proportional Systems

Vincenzo Galasso and Tommaso Nannicini

Keywords: political selection, electoral rule, closed party lists

2014 - n° 525

Inflation Targets Reconsidered: Comments on Paul Krugman

Guido Tabellini

2014 - n° 524

Choosing a Good Toolkit: An Essay in Behavioral Economics

Alejandro Francetich and David M. Kreps

2014 - n° 523

Occasionally binding emission caps and real business cycles

Valentina Bosetti and Marco Maffezzoli

Keywords: Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model, emission trading, carbon tax, occasionally binding constraints

2014 - n° 522

Social Risk: the Role of Warmth and Competence

Jeffrey V. Butler and Joshua B. Miller

Keywords: Social Risk, Social Perception, Intention, Betrayal Aversion, Trust

2014 - n° 521

Reciprocity Networks and the Participation Problem

Martin Dufwenberg and Amrish Patel

Keywords: Discrete public good, participation, reciprocity networks, coordination, cost-sharing

2014 - n° 520

The Structure of Variational Preferences

S. Cerreia-Vioglio, F. Maccheroni, M. Marinacci, and A. Rustichini

2014 - n° 519

Thanks but No Thanks: A New Policy to Reduce Land Conflict

Martin Dufwenberg, Gunnar Köhlin, Peter Martinsson, Haileselassie Medhin

Keywords: Conflict, land-conflict game, social preferences, forward induction, Ethiopia, experiment, land reform

2014 - n° 518

A Cold Shower for the Hot Hand Fallacy

Joshua B. Miller and Adam Sanjurjo

Keywords: Hot Hand Fallacy; Hot Hand Effect

2014 - n° 517

Crime and Punishment the British way: Accountability Channels Following the MPs' Expenses Scandal

Valentino Larcinese and Indraneel Sircar

2014 - n° 516

Managing Multiple Research Projects

Alejandro Francetich

Keywords: Experimentation, two-armed bandits, multi-choice bandits, negatively correlated

2014 - n° 515

Legalizing Bribe Giving

Martin Dufwenberg, Giancarlo Spagnolo

Keywords: Bribes, Corruption, Immunity, Law enforcement, Leniency, Whistleblowers

2014 - n° 514

Bayesian Inference Does Not Lead You Astray... On Average

Alejandro Francetich and David Kreps

2014 - n° 513

Taxing Carbon under Market Incompleteness

Valentina Bosetti and Marco Maffezzoli

2014 - n° 512

Enfranchisement and Representation: Evidence from the Introduction of Quasi-Universal Suffrage in Italy

Valentino Larcinese

Keywords: democratization, voting, electoral competition, inequality, swing districts, political violence, Vatican, socialism

2014 - n° 511

Blissful Ignorance? A Natural Experiment on the Effect of Feedback on Students'Performance

Oriana Bandiera, Valentino Larcinese and Imran Rasul

Keywords: feedback, incentives, students' performance, university education

2014 - n° 510

Value of Information and Fairness Opinions in Takeovers

Mehmet Ekmekci and Nenad Kos

Keywords: takeovers, fairness opinion, tender offers, lemons problem, large shareholder

2014 - n° 509

The scale of predictability

Federico M. Bandi, Bernard Perron, Andrea Tamoni, and Claudio Tebaldi

Keywords: long run, predictability, aggregation, risk-return trade-off, Fisher hypothesis

2014 - n° 508

Plague and long-term development: the lasting effects of the 1629-30 epidemic on the Italian cities

Guido Alfani and Marco Percoco

Keywords: Plague, Italian cities, Urban development, Urban demography, Multiple

2013 - n° 507

Public Policies in Investment Intensive Industries

Giovanni Immordino, Michele Polo

Keywords: Regulation, Antitrust, Legal Standards

2013 - n° 506

Disclosure of Belief-Dependent Preferences in a Trust Game

Giuseppe Attanasi, Pierpaolo Battigalli, Elena Manzoni, Rosemarie Nagel

Keywords: Experiments, trust game, guilt, reciprocity, complete and incomplete information

2013 - n° 505

Market-based Lobbying: Evidence from Advertising Spending in Italy

Stefano DellaVigna, Ruben Durante, Brian Knight, Eliana La Ferrara

2013 - n° 504

DSGE models in the frequency domain

LucaSala

Keywords: DSGE models, frequency domain, band maximum likelihood

2013 - n° 503

A Multivariate Model of Strategic Asset Allocation with Longevity Risk

Emilio Bisetti, Carlo A. Favero, Giacomo Nocera, Claudio Tebaldi

Keywords: Longevity Risk, Strategic Asset Allocation

2013 - n° 502

The Importance of Betting Early

Alessandro Innocenti, Tommaso Nannicini, Roberto Ricciuti

Keywords: sports betting, decision timing, information overload, forecasting

2013 - n° 501

Becoming the Neighbor Bidder: Endogenous Winner's Curse in Dynamic Mechanisms

Alejandro Francetich

Keywords: Dynamic mechanism design, sequential auctions, interdependent values, multi-dimensional types, winner's curse, double sourcing

2013 - n° 500

Ergodic Theorems for Lower Probabilities

S. Cerreia-Vioglio, F. Maccheroni, and M. Marinacci

2013 - n° 499

Real Options and American Derivatives: the Double Continuation Region

Anna Battauz, Marzia De Donno, Alessandro Sbuelz

Keywords: American Options; Valuation; Optimal Exercise; Real Options; Gold Loan; Collateralized Borrowing; Asymptotic Approximation of The Free Boundary

2013 - n° 498

Mean-Risk Analysis with Enhanced Behavioral Content

Alessandra Cillo, Philippe Delquié

Keywords: Risk analysis; Uncertainty modeling; Utility theory; Stochastic dominance; Convex risk measures

2013 - n° 497

The Difficult Case of Persuading Women: Experimental Evidence from Childcare

Vincenzo Galasso, Paola Profeta, Chiara Pronzato, Francesco Billari

Keywords: gender culture, female labour supply, education

2013 - n° 496

A Tailor-Made Test of Intransitive Choice

Aurélien Baillon, Han Bleichrodt, Alessandra Cillo

2013 - n° 495